June 6, 2006
THE PEOPLE'S DAILY editorial on Monday calling for the unwavering continuation of the Chinese reform process marks a return to good old-fashioned Kremlinology on the part of the Western media. The prominent front-page article, appearing in the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party and signed with a knowing pseudonym that hints at Propaganda Bureau involvement, must have come with the approval of President Hu Jintao himself in an effort to outflank forces opposed to the rapid pace of reform, say various foreign reports.
The Times talks about a "fierce internal debate" between the reformers led by Hu Jintao and a new tier of "leftists" who somehow yearn for the days of Chairman Mao, when everyone was equally impoverished.
Of course, this comes as some surprise to those observers who used to think that it was Hu himself, together with Wen Jiabao, who was seeking to slow down growth and concentrate on more balanced, "harmonious" forms of economic development. After all, Jiang Zemin's Shanghai Faction has traditionally been held responsible for the get-rich-quick excesses of the 1990s and the subsequent rise in social tensions, while the new team were supposed to be battling entrenched interests in order to share the spoils of growth more evenly.
The fact that former leader Jiang Zemin was quoted in the article might be regarded as significant to the rune-readers. The Jiang era concentrated on developing the economic powerhouses on the eastern coast - China's "blue states" - while Hu Jintao's political instincts were honed in the "red states" of Gansu and Tibet. This was enough for analysts to suggest that a new approach was imminent, but this has proved easier said than done. The government's so-called "macroeconomic control" measures, for example, have not yet had much of an impact on spiraling fixed asset investment because such investment is seen, particularly in relatively undeveloped areas, as the fastest and easiest route to growth.
The last Party Congress, and the new Five Year Plan, is full of plaintive calls for stability and sustainability. Wen Jiabao, in his address to the National People's Congress in March, also drew attention to the rise in social tensions and said that a new mode of development would be required. However, it soon became clear to many observers that despite the gilded pomp and ceremony of the meetings at the Great Hall of the People, and despite all the fine words being uttered by China's eminently sensible bureaucratic elite, the economy is no longer in the government's hands. The runaway train has gone over the hill and is blowing, blowing, blowing.
This latest editorial, while not quite the bombshell the western media think it is, is an exercise in realism, and a demonstration that there is no turning back. The opponents are not so much the throwback Maoists mentioned by The Times but rather the entrenched interests who fear that further reform will erode their positions, but staying still is simply not an option. The only thing the leadership can do is accept change and, if possible, do their utmost to minimize the damage.
